Climate Shaped the Global Population Structure of Leopards and their Extinction in Europe

Environmental change is often invoked as a key force shaping species evolution and demography, but quantifying its role is challenging. Leopards (Panthera pardus), a widely distributed generalist species, provide an ideal case for studying the role of the environment. The population dynamics of African and Asian leopards differ dramatically, with near panmixia in Africa versus a strong structure and eight subspecies in Asia. Fossil records show that a population in Europe disappeared after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), further pointing to complex range dynamics in Eurasia. In this study, we explicitly test the role of climate in shaping leopards population dynamics across the continents, by quantitatively combining paleoclimatic, demographic, and genetic simulations over the last 450 thousand years. Using an Approximate Bayesian Computational framework, we show that the genetic structure differences between Africa and Asia can be explained by distinct historical climatic conditions in these two continents: most of sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Southeast Asia exhibited a stable range without geographical barriers, while other areas such as Morocco, Afghanistan and Northeast Asia showed expansion and extinction cycles during glacial and interglacials. We further model population dynamics in Europe and validate it against fossil and radiocarbon dates records. We find that European populations were likely fragile, with extinctions repeatedly predicted over multiple glacial cycles, indicating that climate change possibly led to the extinction of the European subspecies following the LGM. Notably, we found that climate during the Holocene should have allowed a more recent recolonisation that did not happen, indicating other factors such as human presence might have blocked it.